Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.353523 0.411879 0.475249 0.548973 0.632172 0.722937 0.829225
2025-05-04 0.274709 0.351127 0.440532 0.552087 0.686718 0.843086 1.037499
2025-05-11 0.215507 0.301359 0.409217 0.552873 0.737175 0.963506 1.260008
2025-05-18 0.159229 0.244767 0.360466 0.525098 0.749479 1.040329 1.440784
2025-05-25 0.114980 0.195322 0.312657 0.491181 0.749517 1.102408 1.611875
2025-06-01 0.087878 0.164848 0.285991 0.482447 0.783043 1.213804 1.862753
2025-06-08 0.066439 0.138191 0.260106 0.470816 0.811295 1.322163 2.123423
2025-06-15 0.053976 0.123827 0.251285 0.484734 0.880774 1.499473 2.504274
2025-06-22 0.039267 0.100958 0.223076 0.461687 0.888602 1.585096 2.758837
2025-06-29 0.029285 0.084451 0.202779 0.448830 0.911701 1.697845 3.068251
2025-07-06 0.021510 0.070013 0.183031 0.433246 0.927857 1.801401 3.374432
2025-07-13 0.017367 0.062999 0.177326 0.444403 0.994803 1.998901 3.855819
2025-07-20 0.013125 0.054078 0.165601 0.442333 1.039477 2.168003 4.315803
2025-07-27 0.010245 0.047823 0.158648 0.449616 1.104580 2.382626 4.878428
2025-08-03 0.007892 0.041993 0.151110 0.454240 1.165549 2.597365 5.463581
2025-08-10 0.005439 0.034009 0.134807 0.433937 1.170173 2.705271 5.864789
2025-08-17 0.003574 0.026790 0.117857 0.407644 1.157047 2.776812 6.205495
2025-08-24 0.002566 0.022695 0.109384 0.402290 1.192030 2.950833 6.760951
2025-08-31 0.001796 0.018997 0.100673 0.394052 1.218866 3.111065 7.304349
2025-09-07 0.001414 0.017353 0.099176 0.407516 1.302827 3.403765 8.140439
2025-09-14 0.000912 0.013915 0.088489 0.388832 1.300223 3.505281 8.592689
2025-09-21 0.000608 0.011521 0.081026 0.378702 1.318905 3.656962 9.163105
2025-09-28 0.000390 0.009397 0.073498 0.366013 1.328255 3.787958 9.700250